"Knowing" tops "I Love You Man" and "Duplicity" so far at the box office

Knowing debuted Friday with an impressive first day at theaters pulling in nearly $9 million in receipts on Friday, handily leading the box office so far this weekend. In a single day, the supernatural thriller featuring Nicolas Cage out-grossed the first weekend of another Cage future-seeing thriller Next, and its initial attendance was on par with similar genre movies The Forgotten and Deja Vu.

As I predicted on the Tim Barron Mornings program this past Wednesday, I Love You Man would not take the top spot this weekend. However, it did make an impressive showing to take #2 with a little over $6.3 million on Friday, landing smack-dab in the middle of the first days of similar comedies Role Models and Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Those pictures' opening weekends came in at $19.2 million and $17.7 million, respectively.

The surprise for me was Duplicity. I thought the return to the big screen of Julia Roberts in this romantic caper would run neck and neck with Knowing this weekend. It brought in around $4.7 million on Friday, ranking it #3. Attendance for Duplicity's first day was slightly less than past titles Intolerable Cruelty and Matchstick Men.

Down 44 percent to an estimated $3.8 million, Race to Witch Mountain's second Friday was lower than the previous Dwayne (Don't call me "The Rock" anymore!!!) Johnson's previous Disney vehicle The Game Plan, but still managed to grab #4 in this Friday's box office receipts. However, The Game Plan's eight-day tally of $35.5 million was higher due to many kids being off school during that week for spring and semester break.

Rounding out the top 5, Watchmen continued to plummet, dropping 62 percent to an estimated $2 million for $93.4 million in 15 days. It was one of the sharpest declines for a third Friday for a superhero movie and nearly as much as Hulk at the same point.

Continuing to surprise at the box office: Coraline...still holding well among nationwide releases. The stop-motion animated feature made $630,000 or nearly as much as it did last Friday, even though it is being shown on 20% less screens around the country.

And it now seems that Paul Blart: Mall Cop is beginning to come nearer to the end of it's shelf life, falling just below the top 10 with a little under $600,000 for Friday. Still, the movie that most critics (including me) said would bomb at the box office took #1 the first two weekends it was out and had a respectible run in the top 10 for 9 weeks earning nearly $140 million.

My predictions for this weekend:

1.) Knowing
2.) I Love You Man
3.) Duplicity
4.) Race To Witch Mountain
5.) Watchmen
6.) Taken (I expect a little bump due to recent press of Liam Neeson's wife Natasha Richardson's death)
7.) The Last House On The Left
8.) Slumdog Millionaire
9.) Tyler Perry's Madea Goes To Jail
10.) Coraline

Weekend box office estimates - "Witch" takes the top; "Watchmen" crashes

(Photo courtesty of Buena Vista Pictures)

Looks like "Race To Witch Mountain" will take top honors this weekend with an estimated $25 million, while "Watchmen" dived a whopping 67 percent to an estimated $18.1 million for $86 million in ten days, trailing all previous superhero movies that debuted in the $50 million range through the same point. (I took my kids to see "Race To Witch Mountain" earlier today, keeping my streak of seeing #1's in the theater the weekend of their release alive)

The big surprise (for me as well as many others) was the continued strength of "Paul Blart: Mall Cop", which took 7th (instead of 9th as I predicted), beating out "He's Just Not That Into You" and "Miss March". "Miss March" squeaked into the top ten behind #9 "Coraline", barely beating out "Confessions Of A Shopaholic" at #11. With this weekend's recipts, "Mall Cop" will be hovering close to $138 million in its 9 week run. Not bad for a movie most critics (including myself) said sucked!

The Top Ten for this Weekend (estimates):

1.) "Race To Witch Mountain"
2.) "Watchmen"
3.) "The Last House On The Left"
4.) "Taken"
5.) "Tyler Perry's Madea Goes To Jail"
6.) "Slumdog Millionaire"
7.) "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" (will this thing ever die?!?)
8.) "He's Just Not That Into You"
9.) "Coraline"
10.) "Miss March"

My Top Ten Picks accuracy score - 60% - not bad, but I usually do better. Dang that Kevin James...lol! Looks like his next movie deal he makes has a nice bargaining chip salary-wise.